teramoto23072016

By The Numbers: Olympic Qualification Prediction

 

While looming concerns over the Olympics exist right now in terms of security, risks and the completely inconceivable notion that Russia may be prohibited from sending a gymnastics team, there is some solace in trying to anticipate what the podium may look like in a few weeks time. So, as with the last by-the-numbers, I’ve taken an aggregate of scores from Gymnter.net and seen what could be.

Teams qualifying to Rio:

COUNTRY GYMNASTS WORLD/TE FINAL SCORE RANK
 

 

Belgium

Gaelle Mys

Laura Waem

Rune Hermans

Nina Derwael

Senna Deriks

 

 

166.997**

 

 

11

 

 

Brazil

Danielle Hypolito

Jade Barbosa

Flavia Saraiva

Lorrane Dos Santos

Rebecca Andrade

 

 

172.054**

 

 

4

 

 

Canada

Ellie Black

Isabela Onyshko

Brittany Rogers

Shallon Olsen

Rose Woo

 

 

167.697

 

 

8

 

 

China

Fan Yilin

Liu Tingting

Mao Yi

Shang Chunsong

Wang Yan

 

 

176.164

 

 

2

 

 

France

Marine Boyer

Marine Brevet

Loan His

Oreane Lechenault

Louise Vanhille

 

 

167.27**

 

 

10

 

 

Germany

Elisabeth Seitz

Kim Bui

Sophie Scheder

Tabea Alt

Pauline Schafer

 

 

170.378**

 

 

6

 

 

GBR

Becky Downie

Ellie Downy

Ruby Harrold

Claudia Fragapane

Amy Tinkler

 

 

172.380

 

 

3

 

 

Italy

Vanessa Ferrari

Carlotta Ferlito

Erika Fasana

Elisa Meneghini

Martina Rizzelli

 

 

167.597

 

 

9

 

 

Japan

Asuka Teramoto

Mai Murakami

Aiko Sugahari

Yuki Uchiyama

Sae Miyakawa

 

 

169.887

 

 

7

 

 

Netherlands

Lieke Wevers

Sanne Wevers

Eythora Thorsdottir

Celine Van Gerner

Vera van Pol

 

 

162.730

 

 

12

 

 

Russia

Angelina Melnikova

Aliya Mustafina

Maria Paseka

Daria Spiridinova

Seda Tutkhalyan

 

 

171.964

 

 

5

 

 

USA

Simone Biles

Aly Raisman

Laurie Hernandez

Madison Kocian

Gabby Douglas

 

 

181.338

 

 

1

*Test Event Scores had the second lowest and lowest scores on each event discarded for consistent scoring evaluation.

Potential Scores Methodology: Scores are highest obtained at an international competition that was not a World Cup Challenge. If a gymnast had no international competition scores, then their domestic competition scores from 2016 were averaged to compensate for domestic score inflation.

 

USA Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
Simone Biles 16.00 15.050 15.550 16.050 AA
Aly Raisman 15.200 14.350 15.100 15.600 AA
L. Hernandez 15.100 14.800 15.300 14.950 AA
M. Kocian 15.366 UB
G. Douglas 15.300 15.333 14.750 14.583 VT,UB
46.500 45.749 45.950 46.6 184.799

 

 

CHINA Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
Fan Yilin 15.366 14.400 UB,BB
Tan Jiaxin 15.2 15.133 13.561 AA
Mao Yi 14.833   14.000 FX,VT
S. Chunsong 14.100 15.233 14.700 14.933 AA
Wang Yan 15.200 13.566 14.500 14.633 FX,VT
45.233 45.732 43.600 43.566 178.131

 

GBR Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
B. Downie 15.500 14.330 UB,BB
Ellie Downie 15.133 14.675 14.950 14.733 AA
Ruby Harrold 14.800 14.766 13.600 14.200 AA
C. Fragapane 14.866 13.800 15.000 VT, BB, FX
Amy Tinkler 15.083 13.700 13.633 14.433 FX, VT
45.082 44.941 43.080 44.166 177.269

 

BRAZIL Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
D. Hypolito 14.333 13.750 14.166 13.966 AA
Jade Barbosa 14.966 14.450 14.233 13.891 AA
Flavia Saraiva 15.050 14.400 14.950 14.400 AA
L. Oliveira 15.166 14.066 13.933 14.066 VT, UB
R. Andrade 14.933 14.600 13.150 AA
45.182 43.450 43.349 42.432 174.413

 

RUSSIA Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
 Melnikova 14.833 15.033 14.800 14.433 AA
 Mustafina 15.333 15.100 13.466 AA
Maria Paseka 15.666 14.800 13.766 VT
Spiridinova 15.650 13.600 UB
Tutkhalyan 14.966 14.433 14.800 14.000 AA
45.465 46.016 44.700 42.199 178.38

 

GERMANY Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
E. Seitz 14.133 15.450 13.766 13.400 AA
Kim Bui 14.033 14.866 13.566 13.666 AA
S. Scheder 14.166 15.100 14.433 13.500 UB
Tabea Alt 14.100 14.166 14.066 13.666 AA
P. Schafer 14.633 13.433 14.500 13.766 AA
42.932 45.416 42.999 41.098 172.445

 

JAPAN Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
A. Teramoto 15.166 14.336 14.100 13.966 AA
M. Murakami 15.066 13.966 14.033 14.333 AA
Aiko Sugahari 14.233 12.800 UB
Y. Uchiyama# 14.100 13.590 12.913 13.325 AA
S. Miyakawa 15.166 14.900 VT, FX
45.398 42.535 41.046 43.199 172.178

 

CANADA Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
Ellie Black 15.100 14.000 14.600 14.425 AA
I. Onyshko 14.233 14.400 14.433 13.966 UB, BB
B. Rogers 15.000 14.600 13.700 AA
Shallon Olsen 14.950 12.800 13.475 14.400 AA
Rose Woo 14.600 14.050 14.400 13.800 UB
45.050 43.05 43.433 42.791 174.324

 

ITALY Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
V. Ferrari# 14.366 13.633 13.733 13.933 AA
C. Ferlito 14.650 13.750 14.441 14.033 AA
Erika Fasana 15.058 13.766 14.500 VT, FX
E. Meneghini 14.600   14.500 14.200 AA
M. Rizzelli 14.491 14.166 VT
44.308 41.682 42.674 42.733 171.397

 

FRANCE Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
Marine Boyer 14.733 13.600 14.850 13.900 AA
M. Brevet 14.241 13.650 14.366 14.133 AA
Loan His 14.250 14.633 13.800 13.800 VT, UB
 Lechenault 13.950 14.333 12.800 13.666 AA
L. Vanhille 13.966 14.266 12.966 13.600 UB, BB
43.224 43.232 43.016 41.833 171.305

 

BELGIUM Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
Gaelle Mys 14.133 14.133 13.800 AA
Laura Waem 13.800 14.200 14.000 13.400 AA
R. Hermans 14.033 13.566 13.866 13.966 VT, BB
N. Derwael   13.300 13.933 UB, BB
Senna Deriks 14.333 UB
41.966 42.099 42.066 41.166 167.297

 

NETHERLANDS Vault Bars Beam Floor Total
Lieke Wevers 13.900 14.400 14.508 14.200 AA
S. Wevers 14.233 14.800 BB, UB
E. Thorsdottir 13.766 13.633 14.233 13.508 AA
Van Gerner# 13.966 13.533 13.366 13.800 AA
Vera van Pol 11.200 12.550 13.000 VT, UB
41.632 42.266 43.541 41.508 168.947

 

So this rough analysis leaves us with the following preliminary scores:

1 USA 184.799
2 Russia 178.380
3 China 178.131
4 GBR 177.269
5 Brazil 174.413
6 Canada 174.324
7 Germany 172.445
8 Japan 172.178
9 Italy 171.397
10 France 171.305
11 Netherlands 168.947
12 Belgium 167.297

It seems to go without saying that early indications point to the USA having a comfortable lead at the top of the podium. However, a lot can happen between now and Rio, and between the TQ and TF, so don’t assume the USA will be cruising through this Olympics. For starters, there’s the untested Laurie Hernandez. She’s been on the international stage, but not at Worlds or Olympics. If you watched the Trials coverage you have all the proof you need that the pressure to deliver can derail anyone- even former AA champion.

On to what will be far more exciting is the race for silver and bronze (again, assuming the USA avoids a meltdown). Originally, when writing this analysis, Liu Tingting and her massive scores at Chinese Nationals had been factored in to the TF. Now, with Liu injured and Tan Jiaxin substituted in, China and Russia have switched places in the rankings. Part of this is due to including Tan in the FX. China is notoriously tight-lipped about their line-up, so it’s possible they have stability built in that the available scores don’t show. Wang has had difficult staying on the balance beam as of late, although both she and Mao have great difficulty on floor- which is sure to help the Chinese team overall.

Russia is barely ahead of China in this numbers analysis. Spiridinova has scored as high as a 15.650 on UB in competition since Worlds, and Seda averages a 14.0 on BB in international meets. Melnikova could post higher FX scores while Seda is averaging around a 13.1, the true cliffhanger right now is Mustafina. While I have no doubt that Mustafina will compete in TQ on all four to qualify for the AA, the question remains as to whether she will be used in TF- much like Komova in 2012. Although, the Komova decision ended up in disaster for the Russian team in 2012 so we may well see the Russian coaches decide to run her ragged in every event in both quals and finals.

Just behind the Russia/China battle are the teams from Great Britain, Brazil and Canada. If the hypothetical 7.5 points separate the USA from China in this analysis, about half that amount separates China and the next 3 teams. Great Britain has put together an incredibly strong team this year. Becky Downie’s beam score has scored up to 14.333 in international meets; Tinkler and Ellie Downie can put up vault scores in the 15s when they are on point, and at the last Worlds they capitalized on Russia’s falls to grab the bronze. Don’t count them out under any circumstances!

Brazil has a chance to edge out GBR if they can hit at their full strength during qualifications. Andrade provided a significant boost on UB and VT, but let’s remember that one competition is just that- one competition. Brazil has quite the Olympic veteran in Hypolito, and Jade Barbosa’s inclusion after the 2012 scandal is sure to quiet some fears over Olympic performances. I would say that Brazil is in with a chance at the podium as long as they can conquer the team qualifications round, which seems to be their nemesis. However, home field advantage can be powerful and I would bank on the Brazilians to be able to significantly up their scores with the support of the crowd.

Canada will look to Ellie Black, Rogers and Olsen to lead their team into the finals. While I don’t see the chances of a team medal, they could usurp Brazil or even GBR to improve on their 5th place finish in 2012.

The next “grouping” so to speak includes Germany, France, Italy, and Japan. While the Team Qualifications will be exciting for this group, unfortunately at least 2 of these teams will be left out of the Team Finals. Germany boasts the 4th highest combined bars total, thanks in no small part to veterans Kim Bui, Sophie Scheder and Elisabeth Seitz. Italy’s veterans Carlotta Ferlito and Vanessa Ferrari will lead a strong Italian team into this Olympics and I know I’m eagerly anticipating watching Meneghini and Rizzelli throw their best routines. As far as the numbers analysis, I would say that Germany and Italy have the best chance of qualifying to the Finals. France’s team could place in the top 8 if they capitalize on any mistakes made by the German or Italian team and if they can produce solid floor routines. Their UB and BB scores will keep them competitive for the last spot.  The Japanese team can put up some solid numbers on vault and floor and I think that will help them stay in the mix, but as I said, Germany and Italy are loaded with difficulty and I think in the end Japan will be edged out by one of them.

Which leaves us with Belgium and the Netherlands. The loss of Axelle Klinckaert to the Belgian team is huge in terms of potential scores. While neither is truly podium competitive, the qualifications will be wonderful to watch as both are fielding full teams for the first time in over 40 years. Sanne Wevers’ turn-filled beam routine and Eythora Thorsdottir on beam and floor will be some of the best from the Dutch team.

As always, the math simply points to a “might be”. The beauty and sorrow of gymnastics is that it can be very hard to predict who will be the champion from one quad to the next, or even from one competition day to the next. Quite honestly I could see a podium where the USA, GBR and Brazil are all represented. Russia and China are not infallible, and teams who have never won a medal are hungry for their place. I agree with most of the gymternet on this point though- the battle for silver and bronze is going to be much more exciting and epic than the race for gold. I just hope, as an American and a gymnastics fan, that NBC finally gets it right and shows both a wider selection of the team’s routines and more of the sport itself. Less of the sappy fluff with soap opera music would be great. I’d even say something nice about Tim Daggett if they did.

Article: Kimberly Wooster

Photo Cover: Nadia Boyce

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!

43 Responses

  1. E says:

    We added van pol on the team for mostly vault.
    And she is missing there? Also vault score of Eythora is for het FTY. She is now doing a DTY.
    So you are comparing 2015 scores with scores from 2016.

    • Kimberly says:

      Very true. Unfortunately, there wasn’t an international competition besides a Cup challenge that she competed in vault, so I didn’t have a score for her. The scores from 2015 are from Worlds if that was their highest score.

  2. acme says:

    Bronze and even SILVER will be anyones game.

    GB, Brazil, Germany and JPN are super strong and could be super close.

  3. Joseph says:

    Although the U.S. is very strong, there is no way that they will have those scores at the olympics. This chart includes many inflated scores that simply won’t happen. And lets be honest here, Brazil and GB on the podium, yea right.

    • Matt says:

      That represents scores US has actually gotten in international competition. It’s not unrealistic at all. we shall see.

    • Elaina says:

      GB on the podium “yeah right?”. It’s not a yeah right. It’s a possibility. I would personally bet on them finishing top 4 after quals. If Russia has a bad Team.

      There is no Romanian team, so there is no big 4 destined to take the medals. Only one team has to mess up to allow a team like GB to sweep in. It’s possible. Brazil..maaaybe could. If they had an absolutely awesome day. Their bars are a bit low and that’s the problem they have.

      I am hopeful for

  4. Tdog says:

    I think too many people are hoping and claiming that Laurie will have a melt down it won’t happen she’s a rock and team USA has been so solid and consistent I believe haven’t had any issues since 2008 they went 24/24 in London if they do what that do I predict at least a 4 point win they thrive under pressure and those who say Madison can’t compete with the Russians and Chinese and others on ub finals are going to be sadly mistaken this Girl can win gold. And Laurie is as good as anyone on bb she could win gold

    • Rien says:

      Kocian gold on UB? You’re joking right? Remember, Kocian won’t score anywhere near what she scored at Nationals and Trials. Her 15.7 is going to drop to around a 15.2. She has very poor technique and she has been missing her connection lately. There’s just no way she is going to get past the Chinese, Russians, and Downie. Even Seitz/Scheder have a better shot than Kocian. Also Laurie gold on BB? Nope. She’s very talented but not good enough for beam gold.

      • Tdog says:

        Rein you must be smoking something can I have some are you Kidd me last I checked Madison has scored just as well as any one from China or Russia this year both domestic and internationally you must be watching Winter Olympics and are you crazy Laurie s flow and flexibility with artistry on bb is as good as anyone maybe you need to watch another sport Madison was pretty darn good even Ashton they’ve looked just as good or better then anyone you claimed looked better let’s be real under your crazy assumption they’ll be scored lower too and if Madison hits she’ll win gold bb is the kiss of death but lauries skill and tecnquie is as good as any of the Chinese maybe go back ad watch Madison scores international she’s precieved well and sh s gotten pretty clean

      • Matt says:

        Simply not true. Kocian has always scored within .3 of her domestic scores. Her average score is more than .3 higher than anyone else’s average score and her highest score is more than .3 above everyone but Fan.

        People unfairly hate on US bar workers.

      • AliyaKomova says:

        So true! Madison is not going to get a medal….Maybe a EF qual, but definitely will not be on podium. No ties in the Olympics, so I think the bars final will be: Russians and Chinese. No one else will factor in.

        1. Fan Yilin
        2. Daria Spiridonova
        3. Aliya Mustafina

        Now if Ashton Locklear were to be there, she would definitely be a medal contender.

        • Tdog says:

          We’ll see about that when she wins the gold and you aren’t writing anything else haters will hate but Madison will and can win gold

      • Katerina says:

        You are a Russian stan stop hating on the USA so much, no wonder you get banned from gymnastics blogs.

    • Claire says:

      Wait, no issues since 2008? Are you forgetting the Rebecca Bross incident of 2009? Or the Mattie Larson debacle of 2010? In 2012 they didn’t go 24/24 they had problems on floor in qualifications. Since 2012 they have been quite consistent but 2008 – 2012 was not good for them.

      • Jo says:

        They did go 24/24 in 2012. They had very minor .1 steps out of bounds. That’s not a miss. Their scores were still very high. Jordyn still made FX event finals. A miss, is a fall or scoring significantly lower. The hit every routine in 2012/2014/2015 team finals & Simone & Kyla dominated 2013 worlds.

      • Jo says:

        On what planet was 2009/2012 not good for them? 2009 words AA gold & silver medalist. Yes, Bross fell on her last pass & still won AA silver. With Sloan taking gold. 2010 was the infamous Mattie meltdown & they still won silver. They were on top of the medal table in 2009 & 2011. They tied the Russians in 2010 with 5 medals. The Russians had one more gold though. They’ve absolutely dominated since 2012. 2013 USA 8 medals. Next best Russia 3 medals. 2014 USA 7 medals. 2nd place China 4 medals. 2015 USA 8 medals. 2nd place Russia 4.

  5. Justin says:

    I don’t understand where you are getting that Germany and Brazil have a difficulty advantage over Japan? Japan has the fifth highest difficulty score total, only behind USA, China, Great Britain, and Russia. Brazil is sixth but Germany is 9th! Plus you have Yuki Uchiyama doing all-around? She’s being brought as a bar and beam specialist. Aiko Sugihara will be doing all-around. Not only does Sugihara have the better vault than Uchiyama (1-1/2y vs FTY) she also will be doing floor in team finals since she has the potential to start from 6.2 difficulty and has been scoring mid 14s all year.

    • Kimberly says:

      The lineup positions are simply could-be based on events competed. Because each coach has their own strategy that is kept guarded until the roster release, I don’t have concrete evidence of which may be used where. Japan has great D-scores, and I used the top 3 scores for each event from the aggregate regardless of the gymnast’s proposed use on the team. If you look closely at the scores I gave them, their hypothetical team scores is a full 3 points higher than their Olympic qualifying scores. Again, all of this is conjecture and I hope Japan has a stunning Olympic showing.

      • Justin says:

        You say that it’s based on events competed but Uchiyama hasn’t touched vault or floor exercise all year so I’m not quite sure where you got information from?

      • Justin says:

        Okay let me correct myself – Uchiyama has done vault and floor this season but hasn’t been close to beating Sugihara which means this analysis isn’t a correct reflection of data.

        Just looking at floor, here are how they stack up
        Nationals – Uchiyama 13.1 & 13.5 / Sugihara 14.05 & 14.1
        NKH Cup – Uchiyama 13.7 / Sugihara 14.05
        Event Nationals – Uchiyama 13.0 / Sugihara 14.0 & 14.3

        Average
        Uchiyama – 13.325
        Sugihara – 14.100

        Yet you don’t have Sugihara doing floor at all, much less in team finals where she’d be outscoring Teramoto?

      • Justin says:

        And the Japanese Federation has announced the three all-arounders are Sugihara, Teramoto, and Murakami – Uchiyama is coming as a bar specialist and Miyakawa is coming as a vault and floor specialist. It’s in all the documents the Japanese Federation released after the team was announced, so it’s not guarded like you say.

  6. Justin says:

    You also have five gymnasts competing bars for the US, Oliveira doing floor in team finals when she won’t be touching that event in Rio, Andrade not doing vault or floor in team finals when she’s probably the best in Brazil on those two events. Paseka won’t be doing floor at all in Rio, much less in team finals.

    You also said China’s potential scores go down with Tan Jiaxin instead of Liu Tingting? Well that’s completely not true. Liu Tingting was brought onto the team due to her consistency, but now that she’s gone and Tan Jiaxin is here instead, China’s potential scores actually go up.

    I’m really concerned as to why you think Murakami will only score a 14.333 on floor? She’s been scoring high 14s and low 15s all season and most of the Gymternet is predicting her someone who could medal on floor in finals. Unless she makes mistakes, her teammate Miyakawa won’t beat her, and neither will Downie, Tinkler, Black, Olsen, Saraiva, or Melnikova like you’re predicting.

    You say your predictions were based off of numbers but your predictions don’t reflect that. So what were they based off of?

  7. Joseph says:

    why are only certain international competitions used in this?

  8. Zyxcba says:

    I doubt Russia will decide to put Mustafina on floor assuming Pasekas prepared. Mustafina has had endurance issues this year for floor, and Paseka is one of their most consistent gymnasts. However, Paseka has had issues as well and might not even compete floor, in which case they’ll have no other choice than to put Mustafina on floor. this is what I would do for the team lineup: Vault: Melnikova, Tutkhalyan, Paseka Uneven Bars: Mustafina, Melnikova, Spiridonova Balance Beam: Melnikova, Tutkhalyan, Mustafina Floor Exercise: Paseka or Mustafina, Tutkhalyan, Melnikova. I didn’t put up Mustafina on the leg events because she scores the same as Angelina and Tutkhalyan on vault, and Mustafinas endurance will be key for her success in finals. Of course this is all assuming the IOC doesn’t decide to pull the plug on the Russian Olympic Committee, but hopefully they won’t screw them over the way they did the track&field appeal.

  9. Felippe says:

    Brazil: Rebeca Andrade holds an Amanar, and 3 gymnasts can do a DTY. Rebeca, Daniele and Flavia will boost difficulty on FX. BB and UB will be the same, except for Rebeca, who will have a 6.5D, with her new bars routine shown in Netherlands. Everything done right, Brazil can fight for bronze, Rebeca could bite a medal on AA, and Flavia, if she sticks her beam routine, could also be a medalist.

  10. Riley says:

    This is very confusing. First off, the scores are extremely inconsistent. 15.33 for Gabby on bars but only 15. 366 for Yilin? Many of these scores are nowhere near where the girls will score in Rio and are very inconsistent with the scores we’ve seen this year. Second, why are all 5 Russians on bars but Aliya isn’t on vault? There is absolutely no way that she isn’t doing the AA in qualifications and probably TF as well. You also have 4 US girls doing the AA and 5 on bars. Assuming the italicized score would be dropped, why on earth would they drop Lauries bars for Alys?! Aly wont do bars in qualifications for Kocian, and Laurie will do bars in both qualifications and TF because Biles doesnt do bars in TF. Also Amy Tinkler would do BB for GB in qualifications rather than Harrold and Andrade’s amanar will score much higher than a 14.9 and floor is one of her best pieces so I don’t understand why you left her out on that piece. It’s always fun to play around with numbers, but this seems very confusing and inaccurate.

  11. Kimberly says:

    Hello all, I am the author of this piece, and I apologize profusely for leaving out some critical methodology information. In compiling analysis for gymnastics I have to make some decisions regarding which scores to include and from which competitions. Generally speaking, and I realize there are exceptions, a domestic meet like a National Championships will have inflated scores. International competitions like Worlds, Jesolo, Test Event, Pacific Rim and DTB-Stuttgart with a team element involving differing countries offered a similar judging consistency with the added bonus of having the largest variety of gymnast’s scores available. These were the primary scores I drew from. If a gymnast had a score from one of the competitions in any event I included it in the analysis, although if it isn’t included in the table it is because it would have already been dropped from the highest 3 available (I was running up on over a week researching this). I decided, for uniformity’s sake, to give each gymnast REGARDLESS of their actual lineup contribution, their highest available score. Secondly, the farthest back in 2015 that I went was the World’s competition. I didn’t want to use scores that might not be reflective of upgraded difficulty or execution by going too far back. Again, that was a consistency choice for this analysis, but I understand that gymnasts upgrade continuously almost up until the Olympics. Additionally, if a gymnast did not have a score (or one that did not measure up to the highest 3 already recorded) in international competition I averaged out ALL their domestic scores from 2016. Domestic scores tend to be inflated and this only occurred for a very few gymnasts. All scores were obtained from thegymter.net website.

    Analytical models can be incredibly accurate or, like mine, incorporate a certain amount of error in their numbers- which I should have stated in the beginning. This is truly just meant as a fun exercise that compiles data from several meets to look at in one place and imagines what it may look like if these gymnasts can replicate scores from previous meets.

    I also feel that I owe an apology to fans of gymnastics teams from other nations besides the USA. While I am intimately familiar with our own team and its lineup probability, I confess that often I only have press releases and limited time to gather information about other team lineups. Given that, I decided to annotate events or AA next to each gymnast for what I thought they might be capable of doing. Because I was only including the top 3 scores for each event in the final total, the chance that a specialist’s scores was missed would only have occurred if they did not score as highly as another team member. Be that as it may, I realize that it must be incredibly frustrating to read an analysis that doesn’t incorporate the total and complete picture of a team. This won’t happen again, I promise.

    • Matt says:

      I thought it was a good article. If I could make a suggestion, in future I would have included domestic scored. Lauren of Gymternet has shown they aren’t that inflated. Pretty consistently adds about .2 to gymnast’s score so if you just subtract .2 you have a reasonable picture of what someone is likely to score internationally. I think with current year domestic scores it would have been easier to see who would compete on which events.

      • Kimberly says:

        I read your comment and immediately looked up the article Lauren wrote! Thank you! I think her research will give a much better analytical model since all scores can be included (the more the better).

    • Ginny says:

      Please, there is no need to apologize profusely. You clearly work very hard on your articles, and for that we should all say thank you. 🙂

    • Riley says:

      Thanks for clarifying!

    • Justin C. says:

      You did an excellent job and the article was fun to read and think about going into the Games. Thanks for your generosity!

    • Rachel says:

      Loved this article! So excited! I thought it was very clear that you were simply doing an analysis as best as possible and that it was simply so we could all enjoy speculating! Bravo.

  12. Mary says:

    Or maybe NBC could show us other routines while waiting for scores, and not Gabby Douglas stretching or Aly wrapping some body part.

  13. Matthew Boyle says:

    My predictions:

    TEAM FINAL:
    USA (Gold)
    China (Silver)
    Russia (Bronze)
    4th–Germany
    5th–Canada
    6th–Great Britain
    7th–Brazil
    8th–The Netherlands
    9th–Japan
    10th–France
    11th–Italy
    12th–Belgium

    Individual All Around
    1st–Simone Biles
    2nd–Other American (Laurie, I hope!)
    3rd–Shang Chunsong
    Realistic Upset Potential: Angelina Melnikova

    Vault Final
    1st–Simone Biles
    2nd–Hong Un Jong
    3rd–Giulia Steingruber

    Bars Final
    1st–Fan Yilin
    2nd–Madison Kocian
    3rd–Shang Chunsong
    Realistic Upset Potenital: Sophie Scheder, Gabby Douglas, Elisabeth Seitz, Angelina Melnikova, Becky Downie

    Beam Final
    1st–Laurie Hernandez
    2nd–Simone Biles
    3rd–Shang Chunsong
    Realistic Upset Potential: Sanne Wevers, Flavia Saraiva, Aliya Mustafina

    Floor Final
    1st–Simone Biles
    2nd–Aly Raisman
    3rd–Shang Chunsong
    Realistic Upset Potential: Mao Yi, Mai Murakami, Giulia Steingruber, Claudia Fragapane, Catalina Ponor

    Medal Count
    9–USA (5 gold, 4 silver)
    6–China (1 gold, 1 silver, 4 bronze)
    1–North Korea (1 silver)
    1–Russia (1 bronze)
    1–Switzerland (1 bronze)

    I looked at average scores for the year and adjusted domestic scores down by .2 except for China and Japan, which do not appear to have domestic scoring bias. The above results represent those calculated averages.

    • Katerina says:

      You forgot Paseka (Rus) for Vault Realistic Upset Potential and Seda (Rus) for AA.

    • Mira says:

      Laurie Hernandez should not win gold over Simone.
      Yes, her domestic scores were AMAZING- but Amazingly unrealistic too.
      Her international scores should be around 15.1-15.35 which is still enough for Silver, but Simone should easily win gold.

    • Bryce says:

      Idk.. If both Simone and Laurie hit beam i believe Simone still comes out on top

    • Craig says:

      So Canada and Germany are going to beat Great Britain are they? Laughable…

  14. Kimberly says:

    Thought I’d leave an update on here after 12 hours of Live Tweet 🙂 Well, surprisingly several of the “predictive” scores were very close.

    1 USA 184.799 185.238 (1)
    2 Russia 178.380 174.620 (3)
    3 China 178.131 175.279 (2)
    4 GBR 177.269 174.064 (4)
    5 Brazil 174.413 174.054 (5)
    6 Canada 174.324 171.761 (9)
    7 Germany 172.445 173.263 (6)
    8 Japan 172.178 172.564 (7)
    9 Italy 171.397 169.396 (10)
    10 France 171.305 168.696 (11)
    11 Netherlands 168.947 171.929 (8)
    12 Belgium 167.297 167.838 (12)

    Canada’s gutting fall basically bumped Germany and Japan up, and the Netherlands team truly did a magnificent job of rising to the occasion. They were fierce and relentless and it paid off. To be sure, the mistakes on beam hit the Italians the hardest, and I was gobsmacked to watch the Russians fall not just on beam but also floor. That being said, from today onward it’s a clean slate and I’d put good money on the Russians being set on taking the silver. However, Shang Chunsong was nothing short of heroic today. I can barely move when I have the flu and she pulled out all the stops. The race for silver and bronze is going to be brutal!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *